Your Chances

In the swinging crowd you mixed with, six of the 24 possible partners was HIV positive. This means that, in this game, you had a 1/4 chance of choosing an HIV positive partner. The chances were the same whether you chose women or men as your partners.

In the game, even if you chose an HIV positive partner, you would not necessarily get HIV every time. Just like in real life, it depended on your luck and the type of encounter you had. In this game your chances were 1/3 of getting HIV from a positive partner. This is because in the game, 1/3 of the encounters you selected led to HIV.

So your chances of getting HIV from any given encounter with a partner of your choice were (1/4 partners was positive) times (1/3 encounters with positive partners led to HIV) = 1/12. This means, that for 12 plays, the chances were one would lead to HIV.

(For more about statistics and probability, see: ItsImpossible.html (this page is also available in French; cette page-ci est disponible aussi en français: PasPossible.html.)

How was your luck? How many encounters did you have without getting HIV?

Don't just trust to your luck! Learn more about HIV!

NOTES

The HIV Positive Rate

This rate varies from group to group. In the United States, less than 1/100 persons have testedHIV positive; however, there are probably more people with HIV who have not been tested; among certain groups, for example, drug users, or people who "swing," the rates are probably somewhat higher!

Chances of Getting HIV from an encounter with an HIV-plus person

The chances of getting HIV varies from encounter to encounter as well as from group to group. Some kinds of activities are more likely to lead to HIV than others are. In addition, your likeliness of contracting HIV depends on your individual resistance -- your health, and your genetic makeup. Healthy skin for example can act as a natural barrier. For more about how your skin and body react to HIV depending on the type of exposure, see [Table Two] (or check out [Barriers]).

Some people have genetic resistance to HIV. Marmor, et. al's report, "Resistance to HIV Infection" (January, 2006; Journal of Urban Health 83[1]: 5–17; reprinted online by the NIH), describes mutations or varieties of the chemokine receptors that affect the ability of the HIV virus to bind to the CD4 cells in the blood. Five-to-fifteen percent of European Caucasions have at least one mutated receptor to the most common strain of HIV. Having two mutated receptors -- a pair -- can prevent infection by the most common strain of HIV. Africans and East Asians apparently do not have this mutation (what about persons of mixed ancestry?), but they, along with Caucasians, have some other mutations to the chemokine receptors which may help to block HIV to some degree, although the research on this is less clear. The authors write that, "[t]he frequency of the CCR5-Δ32 allele [which slows or blocks HIV] in European Caucasians is 5–15% whereas it is absent in Africans and East Asians."

The authors of the report on "Resistance" speculate also that people who do not produce enough interleukin 10, which inhibits HIV in-vitro (that is, in a test tube), may not adequately resist HIV.

When to Test: Going Through The Window Period

If you test during the window period, your test may come back negative, even though you are infected with HIV!

The Window Period is the period after a person is infected during which he or she does not test positive for HIV. Usually testing positive for HIV means testing positive for HIV antibodies. After a person is infected, the body's immune system develops antibodies, which attack the HIV. However, it takes time to develop enough antibodies for the antibodies to show up in an antibody test. Most people develop enough antibodies to get a positive antibody test result within 3 months, and almost all people develop enough antibodies to get a positive antibody test result within 6 months. In rare cases, it may take as long as a year or two to develop enough antibodies to get a positive antibody test. (For more on the antibodies test, go to: http://www.biology.arizona.edu/immunology/activities/western_blot/w_main.html or http://www.biology.arizona.edu/immunology/activities/elisa/main.html)

There is also a test which looks for the virus itself. Enough copies of HIV are produced to give a positive result on this test within about two weeks after being exposed to HIV. However, this test--the PCR or Polymerase Chain Reaction is very expensive.

It is a good idea to wait the duration of Window Period after your last possible exposure to HIV, and then retest. If you are exposed regularly, you should test every six months!

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Interpreting Results

• What Do the HIV Test Results Mean?
  
  
  • Negative Results Mean Either:
    • That you have been infected with HIV, but are in the window period.
    • That you are not infected.
    Negative results do not mean that you cannot become infected!
  
  
  
  • Positive Results Mean Either:
    • That you have been infected with HIV (not with AIDS; AIDS is not a virus--though the HIV virus may ultimately lead to the illnesses associated with AIDS).
    • In rare cases, that you have a false positive. (This is very rare! But it does happen. It used to happen a lot more with older tests--simply because other proteins would stick to the proteins used in the test. Proteins are more likely to stick this way if a woman has been pregnant in the past, simply because pregnant women develop more antibodies than others to various proteins and thus some of their proteins stick to the proteins that the HIV antibodies are supposed to stick to.)
    Positive results are reported to state health--though not necessarily using the full name of the person tested. Anonymous test results are not reported by name.


• What Should I Do If I Test Positive?
  
  

  Whom Must I Tell?

  It is required by law that anyone who tests positive notifies anyone else they are currently involved with in a way where they exchange fluids (that is, share needles with, have a relationship with). If anyone who does not wish to notify his or her current partners himself/herself, his or her local health department will notify them without giving them the person's name. The person just needs to provide his or her health department with a list of names and addresses. The health department will send a form letter to the people listed telling them that they may have been exposed to HIV, and recommending that they get tested. That's it! The department of health will not make public to anyone else the name of anyone who is infected!

  A person who tests positive must also warn any new partners himself/herself.

  Can I Get Treatment?

  Nutrition, rest, exercise. . . sound familiar? These all help your body heal naturally. A number of prescription medicines and alternative therapies may also help at different points in your illness.

  Will Anyone Help Pay the Cost of Treatment?

  Check with your local state health services for medicines provided by your state.